Science Versus Opportunity: 4th Quarter Completion Percentages for Two Young Quarterbacks

Last Tuesday leading up to Week 10 in the NFL, Nate Ravitz (of ESPN and Fantasy Football Focus Podcast) tweeted:

The tweet sparked a comparison between the two players.  There wasn't really a jumping off point until two people asked about each QB's fourth quarter completion percentages. This seems more interesting than just completion percentage when measuring both quarterbacks against each other because the stat could potentially explain how well each QB finishes a game. I went through each game through Week 10 for each quarterback, and here's what the data revealed:

Twitter Question For ARod Replacement

Tonight we're answering a question from our twitter page. This is our first question from our neighbor to the north, or otherwise.  BigvinnyAB asks:

Good question Vince, here are the Yahoo Ranks and ESPN Ranks for Week 10.  And you were right to immediately pick up Nick Foles.  Homeboy's in a position to put up some serious points as the starting QB in Philly, and it's hard not to be excited after last Sunday's seven TD effort.  Even so, I'm tempering my expectations for Foles this week, because I'm not sure he's in the Circle of Trust yet.  Making minced meat of the Oakland secondary is one thing, shredding a tougher (albeit banged up) Green Bay defense at Lambeau in Novembeard is another.  Last Sunday, Foles was a record setter, but for intents and purposes, this is his big "show me" match up, and if I can afford it, I'd rather have him show me from my bench.  You, my friend, can afford to with the other quarterbacks at your disposal.  I wouldn't argue with you playing Foles over Rothlisburger, but I think the ladder's floor is higher while their expected output differential is negligible.  For clarity's sake, if a decent chunk of my starters are on bye and I'm looking for the Hail Mary play, Foles looks better; but if I'm sitting pretty in the standings and have at least a 50/50 shot at this weeks match up, give me the HOF'er with a track record at home.  All Day.  Lets Jump:

Defense and Special Teams: Time to Snag the Colts

In fantasy, it pays to be a week ahead, and if you can afford it during the heavy bye schedule, two weeks ahead. So why aren't fantasy writers' recommending you pick up the Indianapolis D/ST right now? As of writing this article, they're only twenty-two percent owned in Yahoo Leagues, and that is most likely because a.) They have a bye week 8, and b.) only n00bs and league leaders can afford to roster two defenses; fantasy football 101...

The thing is, unless you own one of the top 5-6 defense/special teams units, pick up the Indy squad. Right now. They have graded out as a top twelve defense so far this season, and should be that good if not better the rest of the way. So add them now, while you can, and while they're cheap.  Whoever underperformed or you're ready to cut bait with, lose 'em for Indy.

Reinterpreting the Interception Tax: Should the NFL consider crediting quarterbacks with a half interception on picks where the ball is tipped by a receiver first?

What do Hall-of-Famer Deacon Jones, Yahoo Sports Writer Michael Salfino, and Quarterback Eli Manning have in common? They've all made contributions to the changing landscape of how we score football, both in the NFL and Fantasy. Actually, just the first two have.  Deacon Jones, an NFL defensive end from '61-'74, dominated runners and passers in the opposing backfield and is credited with coining the term “sack.” Sacks existed before Jones played (known as dumping the quarterback) but the were not recorded as a specific occurrence that differentiated them from other plays like they are today. They also weren't credited to individual players at the time. In fact, it would be another 15+ years before players would be credited for sacks individually by NFL scorekeepers. That's a nice trip down Memory Lane, but where do Salfino and Eli fit in?

Don't Drink The Haterade: Why It's Too Early To Call Doug Martin A Bust

*This post is in disagreement to Andy Behren's and his market-altering, hysteria-prompting article from September 30th: Sunday Scene, Week 4: Doug Martin owners, there’s nowhere to run.  Great writer, and he turns out quality stuff on Yahoo, but this time he only offers one side of the story.  Check it out, whether you're interested in buying, selling or standing pat on Doug Martin.

It's not very often that a pre-draft, consensus top 5 Running Back in fantasy football is declared bust-worthy after week four, especially without suffering a major injury to himself, his quarterback, or at least 2/5 of his offensive line. And in reality, an injury to a top five back would qualify more as a busted pick rather than a bust of a player; think Jamal Charles 2010. The FF community, including the Yahoo experts, were high as kites on Martin this year, but there is a real disconnect between this particular 'expert' and the hamster-owning community right now. Some are more optimistic than Behrens, some are less, and most seem unsure of what to make of the whole situation in Tampa. What makes this puzzle even more complex is that Martin is only four games into his second season, which means we don't have the luxury of history to guide us. This is rattling because it means we don't know how low Doug Martin's floor is. The estimations can range from a 20 tote:60 yard floor, to something even below that. On the flip side though, without more than one season in the books, we can't be sure that we know how high Doug Martin's floor will rise, if and once things get clicking in Tampa. Following that train of thought, we really don't know how high the Muscle Hamster's ceiling is.  The following are my comments from the Yahoo message boards: