Saturday, October 5, 2013

Don't Drink The Haterade: Why It's Too Early To Call Doug Martin A Bust



*This post is in disagreement to Andy Behren's and his market-altering, hysteria-prompting article from September 30th: Sunday Scene, Week 4: Doug Martin owners, there’s nowhere to run.  Great writer, and he turns out quality stuff on Yahoo, but this time he only offers one side of the story.  Check it out, whether you're interested in buying, selling or standing pat on Doug Martin.

It's not very often that a pre-draft, consensus top 5 Running Back in fantasy football is declared bust-worthy after week four, especially without suffering a major injury to himself, his quarterback, or at least 2/5 of his offensive line. And in reality, an injury to a top five back would qualify more as a busted pick rather than a bust of a player; think Jamal Charles 2010. The FF community, including the Yahoo experts, were high as kites on Martin this year, but there is a real disconnect between this particular 'expert' and the hamster-owning community right now. Some are more optimistic than Behrens, some are less, and most seem unsure of what to make of the whole situation in Tampa. What makes this puzzle even more complex is that Martin is only four games into his second season, which means we don't have the luxury of history to guide us. This is rattling because it means we don't know how low Doug Martin's floor is. The estimations can range from a 20 tote:60 yard floor, to something even below that. On the flip side though, without more than one season in the books, we can't be sure that we know how high Doug Martin's floor will rise, if and once things get clicking in Tampa. Following that train of thought, we really don't know how high the Muscle Hamster's ceiling is.  The following are my comments from the Yahoo message boards:

Those of us who drafted Martin pulled the trigger, no one held a gun to our head and forced us to, at least not at my draft. I took Martin 3rd overall, and we'll be holding a town hall grievance during the Buc's bye week.  Come, chat, eat cookies, just don't drink the kool-aid. I know its too late on the first batch, but the advice isn't too late for the new "Doug Martin is doomed" flavor.  I'm not buying it (or I'm not selling him) and definitely not right now when value is at an all time low.  I'm a big fan of statistical research and fact-based arguments, but this one's an opinion: Trading your first round, feature back, with elite pass catching abilities, without getting fleeced in the deal, let alone getting a player(s) close to even value, is ridiculous in a competitive league.  There will be situational exceptions, and if you find one in your league, that's peachy.  For the rest of us, here are the talking points.  

1. Without plagiarizing the yahoo player note we've all read 10 times (the last 9 were for comfort), Martin has faced NYJ, NO, NE and ARI.  The Jets and Cards are well above average in terms of stopping the run, both allowing opponents an average of 3.2 yards per carry (YDS/Game is a little fluky because it assumes equal touches and equally talented rushers, and doesn't always accurately account for game flow. You can argue that these things are built into the stats, especially taken within context.  I'm not gonna deny that. But how does the context work with respect to fantasy scoring?  How does it account for the garbage time catches, check downs, screen passes and being "the rookie QB's safety valve"-type receiving yards that Martin racks up? Or what about being the only show in town when it comes to goal line looks?  All those things help pad Martin's fantasy numbers, that's why we drafted him so high, remember?  Now look at NO and NE defensive fronts.  They've allowed a 5.3 and 4.1 rushing avg respectively, and the hamster posted 5 and 4.4 average per carry against those two teams (remember that 144 yd rushing game two weeks ago?).  With those teams having only 3 or 4 games worth of stats, Martin's numbers definitely skew the stats to a degree, but the point is that he's done it this year, so don't lose your cool over his 1 TD and two "embarrassing" games against two of the stingiest rushing defenses.  He also did this three times with Josh Freeman at QB (kind of) and once with the Rook, which is talking point #2.  

The experiment is over, and Josh Freeman is not ready/willing/capable of progressing as an NFL QB.  Say what you will about Greg Schiano, I'm not one of his supporters, but the Buc's must think the have a better chance of winning with Mike Glennon.  The switch at QB was not a disciplinary measure by the Buccaneers.  If it was, they wouldn't publicize their openness to restructuring Freeman's deal during the season.  Sometimes your QB stinks physically, sometimes he's a locker-room cancer, sometimes the team is 0-3 and needs to change things up.  And sometimes, its a perfect storm of all those things, like the hurricane we see in Tampa.  All that is just reiterating that the Buc's think they have a better chance with Glennon (for now), so lets see what the kid looks like on the stage after a few games, instead of just his first against a mean Arizona front seven.  Speaking of which, #3.

Yeah, the Buc's have had hard sledding so far in terms of opponents, and there's more ahead, but they face Philly after the week 5 bye, then visit a banged up ATL defensive front a week before they head into their bye, and then the Panthers solid seven on the following Thursday.  Look it up though, TNF games tend to benefit the runner.  Then it's at Seattle on extra rest (which honestly, shouldn't make a difference, it looks brutal) and back home to host Miami.  The point is, better days are ahead; whether you want to see if Glennon can help "return" the value Martin hasn't shown in two of his four weeks, or you want to build up the trade value for Martin so you can offload him before he visits the 12th man; for now be stubborn and stick to your guns.  And if you roll with Martin all season long, like I plan to, there's no law stipulating that you can't kick yourself for passing on JC and Shady and also bench your 1st round pick during the tough weeks (*cough* 9, 11, 13).  If you treat your RB1 roster spot as just a point scoring position instead of an individual player, your best value probably lies with Martin for roughly 9-10 of the remaining 12 games, and starting your RB3 for those tougher match-ups.  And that's closer to a worst case scenario for a guy we drafted in the top half of the first round.  Let's let the dust settle a little bit, and see where we are in a few weeks. Even with Glennon,  Doug Martin could become a 'Must-Start' against the Seahawks by then (see: Foster; Schaub).

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