Saturday, November 9, 2013

Twitter Question For ARod Replacement

Tonight we're answering a question from our twitter page. This is our first question from our neighbor to the north, or otherwise.  BigvinnyAB asks:


Good question Vince, here are the Yahoo Ranks and ESPN Ranks for Week 10.  And you were right to immediately pick up Nick Foles.  Homeboy's in a position to put up some serious points as the starting QB in Philly, and it's hard not to be excited after last Sunday's seven TD effort.  Even so, I'm tempering my expectations for Foles this week, because I'm not sure he's in the Circle of Trust yet.  Making minced meat of the Oakland secondary is one thing, shredding a tougher (albeit banged up) Green Bay defense at Lambeau in Novembeard is another.  Last Sunday, Foles was a record setter, but for intents and purposes, this is his big "show me" match up, and if I can afford it, I'd rather have him show me from my bench.  You, my friend, can afford to with the other quarterbacks at your disposal.  I wouldn't argue with you playing Foles over Rothlisburger, but I think the ladder's floor is higher while their expected output differential is negligible.  For clarity's sake, if a decent chunk of my starters are on bye and I'm looking for the Hail Mary play, Foles looks better; but if I'm sitting pretty in the standings and have at least a 50/50 shot at this weeks match up, give me the HOF'er with a track record at home.  All Day.  Lets Jump:


OUR RECOMMENDED PLAY: Rothlisburger vs Buffalo

Big Ben and the Steelers host the Bills this week in what should be a favorable match up for the quarterback.  I've actually liked Rothlisberger for a few weeks, but mental mistakes and turnovers have hidden his plays regression back to his norm.  That and the Le'Veon Bell Red Zone touchdowns, which may be in short order this week.  If there's one things the Bill's do well, it's stop the run.  They've allowed only two rushing scores this season, which bodes well for a multi-TD effort from #7.  His peripherals are out of whack too; the passing yardage is there, but his TD% of 3.9  is below this season's NFL average of 4.1 and his career mark of 5.0. While his interception totals are also up, note that five of his 9 came before the Steelers' bye, and since then he's theoretically gotten better (you can't put this one on him.)  As these stats have begun trending back more favorably for Rothlisberger, he's posted better totals from an in-game perspective.  Lastly, the defense isn't what it used to be in Pittsburgh, but that should lend to a closer game where real (and therefore, fantasy) points will be collected throughout the game.

OUR RECOMMENDED (but we won't hold it against you) SIT: Foles @ Green Bay

Foles is kind of like Obamacare: In theory, he should be great policy now that Rodgers is out, but the facts are still out and there's just not enough data to fully get behind him.  In some places he's played well: Florida, California; but when given time to game plan against him, even the Giants held him to under 16.  I'm not a fan of the pundits who are saying: "he's played well on the road, maybe we should throw out his home starts," because the sample size is too small for a second year guy with a handful of starts in a new offense.  Dynasty League - easy add; Rest of Season - lets see what he does tomorrow...

OUR RECOMMENDED SIT: Locker vs Jacksonville

The Jags have been the league's doormat this season and according to stats, they've given up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QB's this year, so how can you sit him?  Well for me it's easy, I've got Locker ranked closer the 15th best QB play this week for multiple reasons.  Don't get me wrong, I think the kid has the makings of a franchise QB (if he can stay healthy) and he's showed his above average athleticism in bits and spurts, but he's inconsistent as all get-out and definitely not your best option this week.  For one thing, the stats against the Jaguars are misleading.  This is the same defense that held Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers to 14 and 16 points, respectively, in two of their last three contests.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks and 9ERS games have really skewed the data the other way. Kaepernick beasted on the Jags in week 8, largely due to 54 rushing yards and two rushing scores.  That amounts to 17.4 of his overall 28 point effort, which if taken away leaves him with a ho-hum 10.6 points.  Even with another passing TD and some more yards, you're looking at a 16.5 point performance, which seems about right for Locker this week.  He might snag you some rushing yards, but he'll also probably turn the ball over at some point, leaving the offense on the sideline and hindering his scoring ability.

As for the possibility of a rushing score, I don't see those as predictable, especially as CJ2whateveryouwanttocallhim has begun hitting his mid season revival and Shone Green has returned to the short-yardage role he inadvertently mastered in New York.  Locker's two big games came before either of those two running backs were playing at the level they are now (or at all for that matter), and they were also games where Locker either bolstered his stats with legs: 68 yds and a TD Week 3 against San Diego; or in garbage time: Week 8 against San Fran, throwing for 139 yds and 2 TD's in 4th quarter.  If his rushing scores are unpredictable and he's probably not looking at a garbage time scenario at home against the Jags, that leaves little room to be excited about all the points he's gonna put up.

Lastly, as I mentioned above, the Jacksonville team might be in the gutter right now, but that's largely because of their disastrous offense, and we've seen their defense hold their own against quality opponents at times.  Given that they're coming off a bye, and this is a win-less team playing a divisional opponent, I predict the Jag's hold Locker in check, possibly on the way to their first win.

While this is a lot of insight into a one week match up, use some of these points as bench-marks on each QB going forward.  If Foles shows you this week in Green Bay, I'd be happy starting him for most weeks from here on out.  If Kelly keeps calling the designed red zone runs with him, all the better.  If Locker show's some consistency in refraining from bad throws, protecting the ball and not taking bad sacks, you might have yourself another starter.  Unfortunately, I see him having to progress through a game manager stage in the Tennessee system, at least before he reaches duel threat fantasy status.  And Rothlisberger will be Rothlisberger, either a steady back or and match up play for Foles on your squad.  Hopefully that helps as you continue to navigate your team through this Rodgerless stretch, however long that may be.

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