Saturday, November 16, 2013

Science Versus Opportunity: 4th Quarter Completion Percentages for Two Young Quarterbacks

Last Tuesday leading up to Week 10 in the NFL, Nate Ravitz (of ESPN and Fantasy Football Focus Podcast) tweeted:


The tweet sparked a comparison between the two players.  There wasn't really a jumping off point until two people asked about each QB's fourth quarter completion percentages. This seems more interesting than just completion percentage when measuring both quarterbacks against each other because the stat could potentially explain how well each QB finishes a game. I went through each game through Week 10 for each quarterback, and here's what the data revealed:

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Twitter Question For ARod Replacement

Tonight we're answering a question from our twitter page. This is our first question from our neighbor to the north, or otherwise.  BigvinnyAB asks:


Good question Vince, here are the Yahoo Ranks and ESPN Ranks for Week 10.  And you were right to immediately pick up Nick Foles.  Homeboy's in a position to put up some serious points as the starting QB in Philly, and it's hard not to be excited after last Sunday's seven TD effort.  Even so, I'm tempering my expectations for Foles this week, because I'm not sure he's in the Circle of Trust yet.  Making minced meat of the Oakland secondary is one thing, shredding a tougher (albeit banged up) Green Bay defense at Lambeau in Novembeard is another.  Last Sunday, Foles was a record setter, but for intents and purposes, this is his big "show me" match up, and if I can afford it, I'd rather have him show me from my bench.  You, my friend, can afford to with the other quarterbacks at your disposal.  I wouldn't argue with you playing Foles over Rothlisburger, but I think the ladder's floor is higher while their expected output differential is negligible.  For clarity's sake, if a decent chunk of my starters are on bye and I'm looking for the Hail Mary play, Foles looks better; but if I'm sitting pretty in the standings and have at least a 50/50 shot at this weeks match up, give me the HOF'er with a track record at home.  All Day.  Lets Jump: