Defense and Special Teams: Time to Snag the Colts

In fantasy, it pays to be a week ahead, and if you can afford it during the heavy bye schedule, two weeks ahead. So why aren't fantasy writers' recommending you pick up the Indianapolis D/ST right now? As of writing this article, they're only twenty-two percent owned in Yahoo Leagues, and that is most likely because a.) They have a bye week 8, and b.) only n00bs and league leaders can afford to roster two defenses; fantasy football 101...

The thing is, unless you own one of the top 5-6 defense/special teams units, pick up the Indy squad. Right now. They have graded out as a top twelve defense so far this season, and should be that good if not better the rest of the way. So add them now, while you can, and while they're cheap.  Whoever underperformed or you're ready to cut bait with, lose 'em for Indy.

Now that you've added the Colts Defensive/Special Teams, here are the main reasons why they'll contribute to your run toward the fantasy playoffs: Schedule, Defensive Metrics, and the Colts' Offensive Philosophy.

Colt's Secondary:They Played Straight Man on Peyton, homie 

The Colts upcoming schedule looks juicy, considering the forced quarterback changes to the Rams (week 10) and Texans (weeks 9/15). Their rest of season schedule looks like this:

Week 9@ Hou updated: 1pt standard scoring

Week 10 StL 

Week 11@Ten 

Week 12@ Ari

Week 13 Ten 

Week 14@Cin 

Wek 15 Hou 

Week 16 @KC

And if you're league plays into week 17, Indy gets the Jaguars at home, which is sweet. Although, the Colts have two tough games left on the schedule from a defensive perspective (on the road against both the Bengals and Chiefs), those come late enough into the season to allow you adequate preparation time. The benefit of five plus match-ups over the next 6 games games is an incredible advantage at such a volatile position. Whether you use the ancient and unfair Waiver Order, or the more democratic and free-market FAAB, over half of the teams in your league are probably streaming defenses at this point. Adding the Colts now keeps you from competing with the masses for the next 5 games. And, like I've said, they've already had their bye, so you could set 'em and forget 'em rest of season, and be just fine.

As far as defensive metrics go, I prefer real game analysis versus a history of fantasy scoring when making forming opinions and analyzing data. We know defensive/special teams touchdowns are fluky, to the degree that they can't be predicted week in and week out.  We also know that some teams will have a better chance of scoring them than others, but potential to score a TD doesn't show up in the final box score. What shows up, and by extension weights those numbers, are the actual, fluky or otherwise, TD's scored. If your defense recovers a fumble on the opponent's one yard line and gets tackled there, its two points for a fumble recovery.  If they recover that same fumble and fall into the end zone, that's 8 total points.  The difference is as small as three feet, and as big as an additional six points and potential win for your team.  It really comes down to the way a funny shaped ball bounces, so where overall fantasy points may show inflation, real team defensive analysis shows consistency and a truer representation of value.  The folks at FootballOutsiders did another great job with defensive efficiency ratings, where they rank the Colts' defensive unit as twelfth overall.  That ranks Indy as a starting unit in twelve team and deeper leagues, throw in the bye weeks and they should be a staple in any size league.  Also, take into consideration their schedule so far: Miami, Seattle, Denver, and the '9ERS and Chargers on the road.  That's no easy feat, and tougher sledding than the number one ranked Kansas City team has faced.  Check the Football Outsiders link for a complete breakdown, including separate pass and rushing defense metrics, team and opponent variance, and schedule difficulty for all teams.  

Lastly, The Colts offensive philosophy so far this season has been a ground and pound, eat the clock mentality, while relying on their above average defense to consistently make stops. Luck is more than capable of captaining this offense on the field, and though Ahmad Bradshaw would be ideal, Trent Richardson and Donald Brown seem capable of helping this offense go most of the time. It doesn't hurt that Luck can move the chains with his legs when he needs to. Right now, the Colts are averaging just over fifty percent time of possession a game (50.48%), but expect that number to grow as they enter this next five game stretch. The Rams, Titans, and Cardinals all average under fifty percent control of the ball, and the Texans should look different with Case Keenum under center rest of season. Though they are averaging the highest Time of Possession so far this season (56.43%), the Case Keenum led Texans held the ball for just 27:48 minutes (45.8%) in his start last week before their bye. I think 56% ball control is a reasonably attainable number for the Colts over the next 5 games, keeping their defense fresh, and the opposing offenses off of the field. Go out and grab 'em while you can.