It's not very often that a pre-draft, consensus top 5 Running Back in fantasy football is declared bust-worthy after week four, especially without suffering a major injury to himself, his quarterback, or at least 2/5 of his offensive line. And in reality, an injury to a top five back would qualify more as a busted pick rather than a bust of a player; think Jamal Charles 2010. The FF community, including the Yahoo experts, were high as kites on Martin this year, but there is a real disconnect between this particular 'expert' and the hamster-owning community right now. Some are more optimistic than Behrens, some are less, and most seem unsure of what to make of the whole situation in Tampa. What makes this puzzle even more complex is that Martin is only four games into his second season, which means we don't have the luxury of history to guide us. This is rattling because it means we don't know how low Doug Martin's floor is. The estimations can range from a 20 tote:60 yard floor, to something even below that. On the flip side though, without more than one season in the books, we can't be sure that we know how high Doug Martin's floor will rise, if and once things get clicking in Tampa. Following that train of thought, we really don't know how high the Muscle Hamster's ceiling is. The following are my comments from the Yahoo message boards:
Those
of us who drafted Martin pulled the trigger, no one held a gun to our
head and forced us to, at least not at my draft. I took Martin 3rd
overall, and we'll be holding a town hall grievance during the Buc's
bye week. Come, chat, eat cookies, just don't drink the
kool-aid. I know its too late on the first batch, but the
advice isn't too late for the new "Doug Martin is doomed"
flavor. I'm not buying it (or I'm not selling him) and
definitely not right now when value is at an all time low. I'm
a big fan of statistical research and fact-based arguments, but this
one's an opinion: Trading your first round, feature back, with elite
pass catching abilities, without getting fleeced in the deal, let
alone getting a player(s) close to even value, is ridiculous in a
competitive league. There will be situational exceptions, and
if you find one in your league, that's peachy. For the rest of
us, here are the talking points.
1.
Without plagiarizing the yahoo player note we've all read 10 times
(the last 9 were for comfort), Martin has faced NYJ, NO, NE and ARI.
The Jets and Cards are well above average in terms of stopping
the run, both allowing opponents an average of 3.2 yards per carry
(YDS/Game is a little fluky because it assumes equal touches and
equally talented rushers, and doesn't always accurately account for
game flow. You can argue that these things are built into the stats,
especially taken within context. I'm not gonna deny that. But
how does the context work with respect to fantasy scoring? How
does it account for the garbage time catches, check downs, screen
passes and being "the rookie QB's safety valve"-type
receiving yards that Martin racks up? Or what about being the only
show in town when it comes to goal line looks? All those things
help pad Martin's fantasy numbers, that's why we drafted him so high,
remember? Now look at NO and NE defensive fronts. They've
allowed a 5.3 and 4.1 rushing avg respectively, and the hamster
posted 5 and 4.4 average per carry against those two teams (remember
that 144 yd rushing game two weeks ago?). With those teams
having only 3 or 4 games worth of stats, Martin's numbers definitely
skew the stats to a degree, but the point is that he's done it this
year, so don't lose your cool over his 1 TD and two "embarrassing"
games against two of the stingiest rushing defenses. He also
did this three times with Josh Freeman at QB (kind of) and once with
the Rook, which is talking point #2.
The
experiment is over, and Josh Freeman is not ready/willing/capable of
progressing as an NFL QB. Say what you will about Greg Schiano,
I'm not one of his supporters, but the Buc's must think the have a
better chance of winning with Mike Glennon. The switch at QB was
not a disciplinary measure by the Buccaneers. If it was, they
wouldn't publicize their openness to restructuring Freeman's deal
during the season. Sometimes your QB stinks physically,
sometimes he's a locker-room cancer, sometimes the team is 0-3 and
needs to change things up. And sometimes, its a perfect storm
of all those things, like the hurricane we see in Tampa. All
that is just reiterating that the Buc's think they have a better
chance with Glennon (for now), so lets see what the kid looks like on
the stage after a few games, instead of just his first against a mean
Arizona front seven. Speaking of which, #3.
Ok. Bust.
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